Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legia Warszawa vs Zrinjski — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
11/9/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Legia Warszawa61%
×Draw23%
Zrinjski16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.81
Zrinjski
0.81

Legia Warszawa creates 123% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.88
Zrinjski
0.50

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.13
Zrinjski
1.75

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Zrinjski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
84%
Legia Warszawa or Zrinjski
77%
Draw or Zrinjski
39%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
35%
Zrinjski wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
84%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
54%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
27%
Zrinjski 1+ goals
56%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
19%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
79%
Zrinjski (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.88 + Zrinjski defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Zrinjski attack 0.50 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
61%
level
23%
Zrinjski scores more
16%

Legia Warszawa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa vs Zrinjski

Legia Warszawa beat Zrinjski 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.