Legia Warszawa 3–2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Legia Warszawa

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

J. Zewlakow 69'

A. Colak 62'

R. Pankov 7'

A. Gajgier 45'

R. Adamski 29'

1/9/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Legia Warszawa57%

×Draw21%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.25

Legia Warszawa

2.14

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.25

Legia Warszawa creates 71% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

1.95

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Legia Warszawa

1.95

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.50

allows per match

Legia Warszawa

1.00

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw

78%

Legia Warszawa or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

79%

Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

43%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

35%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

88%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

63%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

36%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

71%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

36%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

72%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.95 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.14

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.50 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more

57%

level

21%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

22%

Legia Warszawa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

29'

45'

62'

69'

Legia

Pogoń

Manager: Marek Papszun

Manager: Piotr Stokowiec