Legia Warszawa 1–0 Ordabasy: Result & Stats

Legia Warszawa

FT

1 – 0

Ordabasy

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Cornelia Sportcomplex Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Legia Warszawa56%

×Draw26%

Ordabasy18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchOrdabasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.75

Legia Warszawa

1.53

Ordabasy

0.75

Legia Warszawa creates 104% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

2.06

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Legia Warszawa

2.06

Ordabasy

0.50

allows per match

Legia Warszawa

1.00

Ordabasy

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Ordabasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw

82%

Legia Warszawa or Ordabasy

74%

Draw or Ordabasy

44%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

29%

Ordabasy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

78%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

45%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

20%

Ordabasy 1+ goals

53%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

17%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

75%

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 2.06 + Ordabasy defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ordabasy attack 0.50 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more

56%

level

26%

Ordabasy scores more

18%

Legia Warszawa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff