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Legia Warszawa vs Olimpia Elbląg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Legia Training Center Książenice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Legia Warszawa72%
×Draw18%
Olimpia Elbląg10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
2.25
Olimpia Elbląg
0.71

Legia Warszawa creates 217% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
2.06
Olimpia Elbląg
0.43

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.00
Olimpia Elbląg
2.43

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
90%
Legia Warszawa or Olimpia Elbląg
82%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
28%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
48%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
89%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
65%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
39%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
51%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
16%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
88%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 2.06 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.25

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.43 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
72%
level
18%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
10%

Legia Warszawa at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Legia Warszawa 6–0 Olimpia Elbląg

Legia Warszawa beat Olimpia Elbląg 6-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Legia Training Center Książenice in Książenice.