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Legia Warszawa vs Molde — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Molde
Molde
2/22/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsStadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Legia Warszawa51%
×Draw22%
Molde27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.90
Molde
1.33

Legia Warszawa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.88
Molde
1.54

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.13
Molde
1.92

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
Molde+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
73%
Legia Warszawa or Molde
78%
Draw or Molde
49%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
29%
Molde wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
85%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
56%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
29%
Molde 1+ goals
74%
Molde 2+ goals
38%
Molde 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
65%
Molde (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Molde away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.88 + Molde defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Molde attack 1.54 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
51%
level
22%
Molde scores more
27%

Legia Warszawa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Legia Warszawa 0–3 Molde

Molde beat Legia Warszawa 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.