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Legia Warszawa vs Lincoln Red Imps FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Lincoln Red Imps FC
V. Bichakhchyan 83'
M. Rajovic 70'
B. Kapustka 62'
A. Colak 21'
T. De Barr 89'
12/18/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6Stadion Wojska Polskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Legia Warszawa70%
×Draw18%
Lincoln Red Imps FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
2.29
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.81

Legia Warszawa creates 183% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.88
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.50

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.13
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.70

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
Lincoln Red Imps FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Lincoln Red Imps FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
88%
Legia Warszawa or Lincoln Red Imps FC
82%
Draw or Lincoln Red Imps FC
30%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
47%
Lincoln Red Imps FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
90%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
66%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
40%
Lincoln Red Imps FC 1+ goals
56%
Lincoln Red Imps FC 2+ goals
19%
Lincoln Red Imps FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
86%
Lincoln Red Imps FC (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Lincoln Red Imps FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.88 + Lincoln Red Imps FC defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.29

Lincoln Red Imps FC attack 0.50 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
70%
level
18%
Lincoln Red Imps FC scores more
12%

Legia Warszawa at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
B. LopesLincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC · D
8.5

Match Events

21'
A. Colak↳ B. Kapustka
29'
Kacper Urbański
57'
V. Bichakhchyan← E. Krasniqi
62'
B. Kapustka↳ K. Urbanski
63'
K. Gomez← R. Munoz
63'
Juanje← B. Dabo
68'
R. Vinagre← A. Reca
68'
M. Rajovic← A. Colak
70'
M. Rajovic↳ J. Zewlakow
71'
A. El Ghobashy← G. Torrilla
76'
C. Goncalves← K. Urbanski
76'
N. Weisshaupt← J. Zewlakow
81'
J. Toscano← N. Pozo
81'
L. Casciaro← T. Kolega
82'
Ayman El Ghobashy
83'
V. Bichakhchyan
89'
T. De Barr↳ Juanje

Possession

62%Legia

Shots

31Legia

Pass accuracy

53%Legia

Statistics

LegiaLincoln
Overview
62%Possession38%
31Total Shots4
3.28Expected Goals (xG)0.63
10Corners1
6Fouls1
Shots
31Total Shots4
9On Target2
8Off Target1
14Blocked1
26Inside Box1
5Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
552Total Passes347
473Accurate Passes261
86%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
-0.62Goals Prevented-0.62
Discipline
6Fouls1
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa vs Lincoln Red Imps FC

Legia Warszawa beat Lincoln Red Imps FC 4-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Colak (21'), B. Kapustka (62'), M. Rajovic (70'), V. Bichakhchyan (83'), T. De Barr (89').

Legia Warszawa controlled possession (62%) and registered 31 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Warsaw.