Legia Warszawa vs Buducnost Podgorica

Legia Warszawa

CANC

11:00

Buducnost Podgorica

1/29/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Legia Warszawa48%

×Draw24%

Buducnost Podgorica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.27

Legia Warszawa

1.73

Buducnost Podgorica

1.27

Legia Warszawa creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

1.95

creates per match

1.50

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Legia Warszawa

1.95

Buducnost Podgorica

1.50

allows per match

Legia Warszawa

1.05

Buducnost Podgorica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw

72%

Legia Warszawa or Buducnost Podgorica

76%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

52%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

26%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

82%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

52%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

25%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

72%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

36%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

63%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.95 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.50 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more

48%

level

24%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

28%

Legia Warszawa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff