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Legia Warszawa U19 vs Jagiellonia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Legia Warszawa U19
Legia Warszawa U19
FT
7 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Jagiellonia U19
Jagiellonia U19
4/5/2025Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Legia Warszawa U1959%
×Draw19%
Jagiellonia U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa U19
2.46
Jagiellonia U19
1.45

Legia Warszawa U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa U19
2.92
Jagiellonia U19
1.64

allows per match

Legia Warszawa U19
1.26
Jagiellonia U19
2.00

finishing

Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par
Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa U19 ↓

Jagiellonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa U19 or draw
78%
Legia Warszawa U19 or Jagiellonia U19
81%
Draw or Jagiellonia U19
41%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+
38%
Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals
91%
Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals
70%
Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals
44%
Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals
77%
Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals
42%
Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Jagiellonia U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 2.92 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Jagiellonia U19 attack 1.64 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Legia Warszawa U19 scores more
59%
level
19%
Jagiellonia U19 scores more
22%

Legia Warszawa U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa U19 vs Jagiellonia U19

Legia Warszawa U19 beat Jagiellonia U19 7-1 in Central Youth League on April 5, 2025.