Legia Warszawa U19 7–2 Cracovia U19: Result & Stats

Legia Warszawa U19

FT

7 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Cracovia U19

10/15/2023

Central Youth League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Legia Warszawa U1964%

×Draw17%

Cracovia U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa U19Expected goals in this matchCracovia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.42

Legia Warszawa U19

2.72

Cracovia U19

1.42

Legia Warszawa U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 38 away

2.92

creates per match

1.58

1.26

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Legia Warszawa U19

2.92

Cracovia U19

1.58

allows per match

Legia Warszawa U19

1.26

Cracovia U19

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa U19 ↓

Cracovia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa U19 or draw

82%

Legia Warszawa U19 or Cracovia U19

83%

Draw or Cracovia U19

36%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

44%

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

93%

Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

75%

Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

50%

Cracovia U19 1+ goals

76%

Cracovia U19 2+ goals

41%

Cracovia U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Cracovia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 2.92 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.72

Cracovia U19 attack 1.58 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Legia Warszawa U19 scores more

64%

level

17%

Cracovia U19 scores more

18%

Legia Warszawa U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff