Legia Warszawa U19 2–1 Ajax U19: Result & Stats

Legia Warszawa U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ajax U19

M. Ruszkiewicz 53'

C. Pchelka 43'

T. Teuwsen 73'

2/4/2026

UEFA Youth League · Round of 32Stadion Wojska Polskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Legia Warszawa U1949%

×Draw20%

Ajax U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa U19Expected goals in this matchAjax U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.82

Legia Warszawa U19

2.31

Ajax U19

1.82

Legia Warszawa U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

2.67

creates per match

2.65

1.00

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Legia Warszawa U19

2.67

Ajax U19

2.65

allows per match

Legia Warszawa U19

1.00

Ajax U19

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa U19 ↓

Ajax U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa U19 or draw

69%

Legia Warszawa U19 or Ajax U19

80%

Draw or Ajax U19

51%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

29%

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

90%

Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

67%

Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

40%

Ajax U19 1+ goals

84%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

54%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Ajax U19 away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 2.67 + Ajax U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.31

Ajax U19 attack 2.65 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Legia Warszawa U19 scores more

49%

level

20%

Ajax U19 scores more

31%

Legia Warszawa U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

43'

53'

56'

64'

J. Simeon← L. Acheampong

64'

E. Gomez← R. van de Pavert

72'

S. Piasta← S. Chojecki

73'

75'

78'

79'

83'

86'

L. Beekman← K. Kasanwirjo

86'

H. Ayyildiz← L. Messori

90+4'

J. Gliwa← S. Kovacik

Legia

Ajax

1

Hani

2

Frankel

3

▼

Kasanwirj

4

Muzungu

5

Jetten

10

▼

Acheampon

6

▼

Pavert

8

Romers

7

▼

Messori

9

⚽

Teuwsen

11

A

▼

1

2

5

3

14

▼

Chojecki

8

A

Mozie

4

⚽

Ruszkiewi

11

Mikanovic

7

⚽

▼

Pchelka

9

Mizera

20

▼

Kovacik

Manager: Patryk Seppelt Gorajewski

72'▲S. Piasta←▼S. Chojecki

83'▲J. White←▼C. Pchelka

90+4'▲J. Gliwa←▼S. Kovacik

Legia Warszawa U19 substitutes

12Kassyanowicz33Stolarienko6Wyganowski13Pollok16Gawarecki17White18Korzynski19Piasta21Gliwa

Manager: Paul Nuijten

64'▲J. Simeon←▼L. Acheampong

64'▲E. Gomez←▼R. van de Pavert

79'▲S. Tilborg←▼P. Nash

86'▲L. Beekman←▼K. Kasanwirjo

86'▲H. Ayyildiz←▼L. Messori

Ajax U19 substitutes

12Engel15Beekman16Owolabi17Simeon18Skaarud19Ayyildiz20Gomez21Moumane22Tilborg

UEFA Youth League: Legia Warszawa U19 2–1 Ajax U19

Legia Warszawa U19 beat Ajax U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 4, 2026.

Goals: C. Pchelka (43'), M. Ruszkiewicz (53'), T. Teuwsen (73').

The match was played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Warsaw.

Legia Warszawa U19 vs Ajax U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Legia Warszawa U19 2–1 Ajax U19