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Legia Warszawa U18 vs Zagłębie Lubin U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Legia Warszawa U18
Legia Warszawa U18
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Zagłębie Lubin U18
Zagłębie Lubin U18
8/20/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Legia Warszawa U1846%
×Draw22%
Zagłębie Lubin U1832%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa U18
1.99
Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.65

Legia Warszawa U18 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa U18
2.35
Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.54

allows per match

Legia Warszawa U18
1.76
Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.62

finishing

Legia Warszawa U18+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin U18+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa U18 ↓

Zagłębie Lubin U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa U18 or draw
68%
Legia Warszawa U18 or Zagłębie Lubin U18
78%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin U18
54%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+
26%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa U18 1+ goals
86%
Legia Warszawa U18 2+ goals
59%
Legia Warszawa U18 3+ goals
32%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 1+ goals
81%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 2+ goals
49%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)
59%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa U18 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Zagłębie Lubin U18 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa U18 attack 2.35 + Zagłębie Lubin U18 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.99

Zagłębie Lubin U18 attack 1.54 + Legia Warszawa U18 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Legia Warszawa U18 scores more
46%
level
22%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 scores more
32%

Legia Warszawa U18 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Legia Warszawa U18 5–2 Zagłębie Lubin U18

Legia Warszawa U18 beat Zagłębie Lubin U18 5-2 in Central Youth League on August 20, 2022.