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Legia Warszawa U18 vs Hutnik Kraków U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Legia Warszawa U18
Legia Warszawa U18
FT
4 – 0
Hutnik Kraków U18
Hutnik Kraków U18
6/19/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Legia Warszawa U1872%
×Draw15%
Hutnik Kraków U1813%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa U18
3.04
Hutnik Kraków U18
1.25

Legia Warszawa U18 creates 143% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa U18
2.35
Hutnik Kraków U18
0.73

allows per match

Legia Warszawa U18
1.76
Hutnik Kraków U18
3.73

finishing

Legia Warszawa U18+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa U18 ↓

Hutnik Kraków U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa U18 or draw
87%
Legia Warszawa U18 or Hutnik Kraków U18
85%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków U18
28%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+
53%
Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa U18 1+ goals
95%
Legia Warszawa U18 2+ goals
80%
Legia Warszawa U18 3+ goals
57%
Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals
71%
Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals
36%
Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)
85%
Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa U18 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Hutnik Kraków U18 away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa U18 attack 2.35 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 3.04

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 0.73 + Legia Warszawa U18 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Legia Warszawa U18 scores more
72%
level
15%
Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more
13%

Legia Warszawa U18 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa U18 vs Hutnik Kraków U18

Legia Warszawa U18 beat Hutnik Kraków U18 4-0 in Central Youth League on June 19, 2021.