Legia Warszawa U18 2–2 Cracovia U18: Result & Stats

Legia Warszawa U18

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cracovia U18

4/2/2022

Central Youth League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Legia Warszawa U1850%

×Draw21%

Cracovia U1829%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa U18Expected goals in this matchCracovia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.61

Legia Warszawa U18

2.17

Cracovia U18

1.61

Legia Warszawa U18 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

2.35

creates per match

1.46

1.76

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Legia Warszawa U18

2.35

Cracovia U18

1.46

allows per match

Legia Warszawa U18

1.76

Cracovia U18

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa U18+0.00on par

Cracovia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa U18 ↓

Cracovia U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa U18 or draw

71%

Legia Warszawa U18 or Cracovia U18

79%

Draw or Cracovia U18

50%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+

30%

Cracovia U18 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa U18 1+ goals

89%

Legia Warszawa U18 2+ goals

64%

Legia Warszawa U18 3+ goals

36%

Cracovia U18 1+ goals

80%

Cracovia U18 2+ goals

48%

Cracovia U18 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)

64%

Cracovia U18 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa U18 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Cracovia U18 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa U18 attack 2.35 + Cracovia U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Cracovia U18 attack 1.46 + Legia Warszawa U18 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legia Warszawa U18 scores more

50%

level

21%

Cracovia U18 scores more

29%

Legia Warszawa U18 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff