Legia Warszawa II 3–1 Wissa Szczuczyn

Legia Warszawa II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Wissa Szczuczyn

4/27/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Legia Warszawa II69%

×Draw18%

Wissa Szczuczyn13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa IIExpected goals in this matchWissa Szczuczyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.90

Legia Warszawa II

2.31

Wissa Szczuczyn

0.90

Legia Warszawa II creates 157% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

2.40

creates per match

0.56

1.24

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II

2.40

Wissa Szczuczyn

0.56

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II

1.24

Wissa Szczuczyn

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw

87%

Legia Warszawa II or Wissa Szczuczyn

82%

Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn

31%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+

45%

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals

90%

Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals

67%

Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals

40%

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals

59%

Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals

23%

Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)

84%

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.31

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more

69%

level

18%

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more

13%

Legia Warszawa II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff