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Legia Warszawa II vs Sokół Ostróda — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
3/25/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legia Warszawa II58%
×Draw21%
Sokół Ostróda21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
2.11
Sokół Ostróda
1.18

Legia Warszawa II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
2.40
Sokół Ostróda
1.12

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.24
Sokół Ostróda
1.82

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
79%
Legia Warszawa II or Sokół Ostróda
79%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
42%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
36%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
88%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
62%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
35%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
69%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
74%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.11

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.12 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
58%
level
21%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
21%

Legia Warszawa II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legia Warszawa II 0–0 Sokół Ostróda

Legia Warszawa II and Sokół Ostróda drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Legia Training Center in Urszulin.