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Legia Warszawa II vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
3 – 2
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
3/11/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Legia Warszawa II55%
×Draw22%
Pelikan Łowicz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
1.98
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

Legia Warszawa II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 86 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
2.40
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.24
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
76%
Legia Warszawa II or Pelikan Łowicz
78%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
45%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
32%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
86%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
59%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
31%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
71%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
35%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
70%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.98

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
55%
level
22%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
24%

Legia Warszawa II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legia Warszawa II 3–2 Pelikan Łowicz

Legia Warszawa II beat Pelikan Łowicz 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Legia Training Center in Urszulin.