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Legia Warszawa II vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
S. Wlodarczyk 90', 41', 7'
M. Grudzinski 66'
F. Laskowski 5'
K. Sadocha 77'
3/20/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Legia Warszawa II60%
×Draw20%
Mamry Giżycko20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
2.23
Mamry Giżycko
1.23

Legia Warszawa II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
2.40
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.24
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
80%
Legia Warszawa II or Mamry Giżycko
80%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
40%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
37%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
89%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
65%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
38%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
71%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
35%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
75%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.23

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
60%
level
20%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
20%

Legia Warszawa II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
F. Laskowski
7'
S. Wlodarczyk
41'
S. Wlodarczyk
66'
M. Grudzinski
77'
K. Sadocha
90'
S. Wlodarczyk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa II vs Mamry Giżycko

Legia Warszawa II beat Mamry Giżycko 5-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 20, 2022.

Goals: F. Laskowski (5'), S. Wlodarczyk (7', 41', 90'), M. Grudzinski (66'), K. Sadocha (77').

The match was played at Legia Training Center in Urszulin.