Legia Warszawa II 3–1 Legionovia Legionowo

Legia Warszawa II

FT

3 – 1

Legionovia Legionowo

5/15/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Legia Warszawa II50%

×Draw22%

Legionovia Legionowo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa IIExpected goals in this matchLegionovia Legionowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.46

Legia Warszawa II

2.01

Legionovia Legionowo

1.46

Legia Warszawa II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 70 away

2.40

creates per match

1.69

1.24

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II

2.40

Legionovia Legionowo

1.69

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II

1.24

Legionovia Legionowo

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw

72%

Legia Warszawa II or Legionovia Legionowo

78%

Draw or Legionovia Legionowo

50%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+

29%

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals

87%

Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals

59%

Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals

32%

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

77%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

43%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)

64%

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.01

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more

50%

level

22%

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

28%

Legia Warszawa II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff