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Legia Warszawa II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
3/3/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Legia Warszawa II54%
×Draw21%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
2.15
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.44

Legia Warszawa II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
2.40
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.63

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.24
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.91

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
74%
Legia Warszawa II or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
79%
Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
46%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
32%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
88%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
63%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
36%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
76%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
42%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
68%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.15

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
54%
level
21%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
26%

Legia Warszawa II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Legia Warszawa II beat Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Legia Training Center in Urszulin.