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Legia Warszawa II vs Huragan Morąg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
5 – 0
Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
11/21/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Legia Warszawa II61%
×Draw19%
Huragan Morąg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
2.31
Huragan Morąg
1.23

Legia Warszawa II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
2.40
Huragan Morąg
1.22

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.24
Huragan Morąg
2.22

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Huragan Morąg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
81%
Legia Warszawa II or Huragan Morąg
81%
Draw or Huragan Morąg
39%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
39%
Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
90%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
67%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
40%
Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
71%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
35%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
76%
Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.31

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
61%
level
19%
Huragan Morąg scores more
19%

Legia Warszawa II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legia Warszawa II 5–0 Huragan Morąg

Legia Warszawa II beat Huragan Morąg 5-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Legia Training Center in Urszulin.