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Legia Warszawa II vs Bełchatów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bełchatów
Bełchatów
3/7/2026III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 21Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Legia Warszawa II57%
×Draw20%
Bełchatów22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
2.19
Bełchatów
1.31

Legia Warszawa II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
2.40
Bełchatów
1.37

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.24
Bełchatów
1.98

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Bełchatów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
78%
Legia Warszawa II or Bełchatów
80%
Draw or Bełchatów
43%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
35%
Bełchatów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
89%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
64%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
37%
Bełchatów 1+ goals
73%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
38%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
72%
Bełchatów (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Bełchatów defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.19

Bełchatów attack 1.37 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
57%
level
20%
Bełchatów scores more
22%

Legia Warszawa II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legia Warszawa II 2–0 Bełchatów

Legia Warszawa II beat Bełchatów 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Legia Training Center in Książenice.