Legetafo Legedadi 0–3 Mekelakeya: Result & Stats

Legetafo Legedadi

FT

0 – 3

Mekelakeya

2/24/2023

Premier League · Round 15Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi18%

×Draw23%

Mekelakeya59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legetafo LegedadiExpected goals in this matchMekelakeya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.77

Legetafo Legedadi

0.87

Mekelakeya

1.77

Mekelakeya creates 103% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 81 away

0.88

creates per match

1.35

2.19

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi

0.88

Mekelakeya

1.35

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi

2.19

Mekelakeya

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Mekelakeya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw

41%

Legetafo Legedadi or Mekelakeya

77%

Draw or Mekelakeya

82%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

6%

Mekelakeya wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

58%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

22%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

6%

Mekelakeya 1+ goals

83%

Mekelakeya 2+ goals

53%

Mekelakeya 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

24%

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

18%

level

23%

Mekelakeya scores more

59%

Mekelakeya at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff