Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legetafo Legedadi vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
4/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi22%
×Draw26%
Hadiya Hosaena52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
0.89
Hadiya Hosaena
1.53

Hadiya Hosaena creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 101 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Hadiya Hosaena
0.88

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Hadiya Hosaena
0.89

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
48%
Legetafo Legedadi or Hadiya Hosaena
74%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
78%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
7%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
59%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
22%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
6%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
78%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
45%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
30%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.89 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.88 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
22%
level
26%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
52%

Hadiya Hosaena at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
45+1'
M. Abera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legetafo Legedadi vs Hadiya Hosaena

Legetafo Legedadi and Hadiya Hosaena drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 25, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.