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Legetafo Legedadi vs Ethiopian Medhin — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
C. Damtew 90+4' (pen)
K. Jima 90+3', 71'
W. Gezahegn 89'
S. Peter 60', 59'
B. Mulugeta 22'
H. Kemal 12'
4/10/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi17%
×Draw23%
Ethiopian Medhin60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
0.85
Ethiopian Medhin
1.81

Ethiopian Medhin creates 113% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Ethiopian Medhin
1.44

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Ethiopian Medhin
0.82

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Ethiopian Medhin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
40%
Legetafo Legedadi or Ethiopian Medhin
77%
Draw or Ethiopian Medhin
83%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
5%
Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
57%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
21%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
5%
Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
84%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
54%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
22%
Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Ethiopian Medhin away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.44 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
17%
level
23%
Ethiopian Medhin scores more
60%

Ethiopian Medhin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
H. Kemal
18'
T. Bekele
20'
Y. Hassen
22'
B. Mulugeta
24'
A. Tsegaye
34'
H. Kemal
34'
S. TraoreMissed penalty
34'
H. Shewalem
45'
F. Alemayehu
45+1'
H. KemalMissed penalty
46'
C. Damtew← C. Damtew
46'
K. Jima← K. Jima
59'
S. Peter
60'
S. Peter
67'
W. Gezahegn← W. Gezahegn
71'
K. Jima
71'
T. Aniley← T. Aniley
71'
I. Befkadu← I. Befkadu
79'
Y. Darza← Y. Darza
89'
W. Gezahegn
90'
G. Eyob← G. Eyob
90+3'
K. Jima
90+4'
C. DamtewPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legetafo Legedadi 1–7 Ethiopian Medhin

Ethiopian Medhin beat Legetafo Legedadi 7-1 in Premier League on April 10, 2023.

Goals: H. Kemal (12'), B. Mulugeta (22'), S. Peter (59', 60'), K. Jima (71', 90+3'), W. Gezahegn (89'), C. Damtew (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.