Legetafo Legedadi 1–3 Bahardar: Result & Stats

Legetafo Legedadi

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bahardar

G. Ahmed 90+3'

Y. Tesfaye 71'

A. Azene 69'

F. Asmamawe 41'

4/19/2023

Premier League · Round 20Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi19%

×Draw24%

Bahardar56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legetafo LegedadiExpected goals in this matchBahardar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.68

Legetafo Legedadi

0.87

Bahardar

1.68

Bahardar creates 93% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

0.88

creates per match

1.17

2.19

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi

0.88

Bahardar

1.17

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi

2.19

Bahardar

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Bahardar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw

44%

Legetafo Legedadi or Bahardar

76%

Draw or Bahardar

81%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

6%

Bahardar wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

58%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

22%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

6%

Bahardar 1+ goals

81%

Bahardar 2+ goals

50%

Bahardar 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

26%

Bahardar (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.86 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Bahardar defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Bahardar attack 1.17 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

19%

level

24%

Bahardar scores more

56%

Bahardar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

F. Asmamawe

55'

D. Shubisa

58'

T. Aniley← T. Aniley

58'

A. Arbo← A. Arbo

64'

F. Tilahun← F. Tilahun

67'

Y. Bayeh

69'

A. Azene

70'

A. Ayele

71'

Y. Tesfaye

74'

T. Negash

76'

B. Tigabu← B. Tigabu

77'

A. Arbo

84'

M. Sidibe← M. Sidibe

87'

T. Aniley

89'

H. Taddese

90+3'

G. Ahmed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff