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Leganes vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018

Leganes
Leganes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
9/29/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Leganes45%
×Draw27%
Racing Santander28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganes
1.35
Racing Santander
1.01

Leganes creates 34% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 106 away

creates per match

Leganes
1.27
Racing Santander
1.16

allows per match

Leganes
0.87
Racing Santander
1.43

finishing

Leganes+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leganes or draw
72%
Leganes or Racing Santander
73%
Draw or Racing Santander
55%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+
21%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals
74%
Leganes 2+ goals
39%
Leganes 3+ goals
15%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
64%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
27%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)
61%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 106 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.27 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Leganes defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leganes scores more
45%
level
27%
Racing Santander scores more
28%

Leganes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Leganes 2–1 Racing Santander

Leganes beat Racing Santander 2-1 in Segunda División on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque in Leganés.