Leganes 1–0 Malaga: Result & Stats

Leganes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

José Arnáiz 65'

10/12/2022

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leganes30%

×Draw25%

Malaga45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeganesExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.60

Leganes

1.25

Malaga

1.60

Malaga creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.24

creates per match

2.14

1.06

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Leganes

1.24

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Leganes

1.06

Malaga

1.25

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Leganes+0.16scores more

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leganes or draw

55%

Leganes or Malaga

75%

Draw or Malaga

70%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+

13%

Malaga wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals

71%

Leganes 2+ goals

36%

Leganes 3+ goals

13%

Malaga 1+ goals

80%

Malaga 2+ goals

47%

Malaga 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)

40%

Malaga (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.24 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Malaga attack 2.14 + Leganes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leganes scores more

30%

level

25%

Malaga scores more

45%

Malaga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Sergio González

Leganes · D

7.3

Match Events

47'

Alfred N'Diaye

56'

Francisco Villalba

58'

Genaro Rodríguez← Fran Villalba

61'

Pablo Hervías← Alberto Escassi

65'

José Arnáiz↳ S. Cissé

66'

Fede Vico← Juan Muñoz

72'

Rubén Castro← Fran Sol

72'

Cristian Gutiérrez← Jozabed

72'

Loren Zúñiga← Aleix Febas

75'

Y. Neyou← S. Cissé

78'

Javi Jiménez

88'

P. Parzyszek← José Arnáiz

89'

Rubén Pardo← Iker Undabarrena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeganesMalaga

Overview

39%Possession61%

4Total Shots12

2Corners6

8Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots12

1On Target1

3Off Target6

0Blocked5

3Inside Box9

1Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

349Total Passes527

255Accurate Passes447

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2