Leganes 6–0 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Leganes

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Amorebieta

J. Chicco 90+3'

Dani Raba 82'

Diego García 73'

Miguel de la Fuente 50', 25', 21'

10/15/2023

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Leganes54%

×Draw26%

Amorebieta20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeganesExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.80

Leganes

1.50

Amorebieta

0.80

Leganes creates 88% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 42 away

1.27

creates per match

0.74

0.87

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Leganes

1.27

Amorebieta

0.74

allows per match

Leganes

0.87

Amorebieta

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganes+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leganes or draw

80%

Leganes or Amorebieta

74%

Draw or Amorebieta

46%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+

28%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals

78%

Leganes 2+ goals

44%

Leganes 3+ goals

19%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

55%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

19%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)

73%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 106 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.27 + Amorebieta defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Leganes defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Leganes scores more

54%

level

26%

Amorebieta scores more

20%

Leganes at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Miguel de la Fuente

Leganes · F

9.3

Match Events

21'

Miguel de la Fuente↳ Dani Raba

25'

Miguel de la Fuente

46'

Javier Avilés← Eraso

46'

Rayco Rodríguez← Jon Morcillo

50'

Jon Mikel Magunagoitia

50'

Miguel de la Fuente↳ Dani Raba

60'

Portillo← N. Djouahra

60'

Oscar Ureña← Miguel de la Fuente

70'

Alvaro Nunez

71'

Iker Undabarrena← Y. Neyou

73'

Diego García

74'

L. Quintero← Josué Dorrio

74'

M. Da Graca← R. Edwards

74'

Félix Garreta← Daniel Lasure

76'

Darío Poveda← Diego García

76'

D. Abzi← Enric Franquesa

77'

Julián Chicco

82'

Dani Raba

90+3'

J. Chicco↳ Portillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeganesAmorebieta

Overview

45%Possession55%

17Total Shots8

2Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots8

10On Target1

6Off Target5

1Blocked2

12Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

360Total Passes415

277Accurate Passes334

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0