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Leganés II vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
3/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Leganés II45%
×Draw29%
Villanueva Pardillo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.25
Villanueva Pardillo
0.86

Leganés II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 50 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
74%
Leganés II or Villanueva Pardillo
71%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
55%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
20%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
71%
Leganés II 2+ goals
36%
Leganés II 3+ goals
13%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
58%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
21%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
64%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leganés II scores more
45%
level
29%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
26%

Leganés II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Leganés II 1–0 Villanueva Pardillo

Leganés II beat Villanueva Pardillo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.