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Leganés II vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Estadio Anexo Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Leganés II52%
×Draw25%
San Fernando Henares23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.62
San Fernando Henares
0.98

Leganés II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 29 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
77%
Leganés II or San Fernando Henares
75%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
48%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
28%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
80%
Leganés II 2+ goals
48%
Leganés II 3+ goals
22%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
62%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
26%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
70%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.62

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leganés II scores more
52%
level
25%
San Fernando Henares scores more
23%

Leganés II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Leganés II 4–0 San Fernando Henares

Leganés II beat San Fernando Henares 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Anexo Butarque in Leganés.