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Leganés II vs Móstoles CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Leganés II49%
×Draw28%
Móstoles CF23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.33
Móstoles CF
0.81

Leganés II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 16 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Móstoles CF
0.81

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Móstoles CF
1.25

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Móstoles CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
77%
Leganés II or Móstoles CF
72%
Draw or Móstoles CF
51%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
23%
Móstoles CF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
74%
Leganés II 2+ goals
38%
Leganés II 3+ goals
15%
Móstoles CF 1+ goals
56%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
19%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
68%
Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leganés II scores more
49%
level
28%
Móstoles CF scores more
23%

Leganés II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leganés II vs Móstoles CF

Leganés II beat Móstoles CF 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.