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Leganés II vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
CANC
22:00
Flat Earth
Flat Earth
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 38Estadio Anexo Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Leganés II48%
×Draw29%
Flat Earth23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.31
Flat Earth
0.82

Leganés II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 28 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Flat Earth
0.82

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Flat Earth
1.21

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Flat Earth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
77%
Leganés II or Flat Earth
71%
Draw or Flat Earth
52%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
23%
Flat Earth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
73%
Leganés II 2+ goals
38%
Leganés II 3+ goals
14%
Flat Earth 1+ goals
56%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
20%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
67%
Flat Earth (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leganés II scores more
48%
level
29%
Flat Earth scores more
23%

Leganés II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leganés II host Flat Earth

May 16, 2020: Leganés II take on Flat Earth in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leganés II host Flat Earth at Estadio Anexo Butarque.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.