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Leganés II vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Estadio Anexo Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Leganés II56%
×Draw25%
El Álamo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.62
El Álamo
0.83

Leganés II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 47 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
81%
Leganés II or El Álamo
75%
Draw or El Álamo
44%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
30%
El Álamo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
80%
Leganés II 2+ goals
48%
Leganés II 3+ goals
22%
El Álamo 1+ goals
56%
El Álamo 2+ goals
20%
El Álamo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
75%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.62

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leganés II scores more
56%
level
25%
El Álamo scores more
19%

Leganés II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Leganés II 2–2 El Álamo

Leganés II and El Álamo drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Anexo Butarque in Leganés.