El Álamo 3–3 Leganés II: Result & Stats

El Álamo

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Leganés II

2/23/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

El Álamo33%

×Draw24%

Leganés II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El ÁlamoExpected goals in this matchLeganés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.63

El Álamo

1.38

Leganés II

1.63

Leganés II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 79 away

1.43

creates per match

1.89

1.36

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

El Álamo

1.43

Leganés II

1.89

allows per match

El Álamo

1.36

Leganés II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par

Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

Leganés II →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw

57%

El Álamo or Leganés II

76%

Draw or Leganés II

67%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+

15%

Leganés II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals

75%

El Álamo 2+ goals

40%

El Álamo 3+ goals

16%

Leganés II 1+ goals

80%

Leganés II 2+ goals

48%

Leganés II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)

43%

Leganés II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Leganés II attack 1.89 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

El Álamo scores more

33%

level

24%

Leganés II scores more

43%

Leganés II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff