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Leganés II vs Cala Pozuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leganés II49%
×Draw26%
Cala Pozuelo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.53
Cala Pozuelo
1.03

Leganés II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Cala Pozuelo
1.24

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Cala Pozuelo
1.65

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Cala Pozuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
74%
Leganés II or Cala Pozuelo
74%
Draw or Cala Pozuelo
51%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
25%
Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
78%
Leganés II 2+ goals
45%
Leganés II 3+ goals
20%
Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
64%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
28%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
66%
Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Cala Pozuelo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.24 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leganés II scores more
49%
level
26%
Cala Pozuelo scores more
26%

Leganés II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Leganés II 0–1 Cala Pozuelo

Cala Pozuelo beat Leganés II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.