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Leganés II vs Aravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aravaca
Aravaca
1/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 19Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leganés II53%
×Draw27%
Aravaca20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.47
Aravaca
0.79

Leganés II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Aravaca
0.76

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Aravaca
1.53

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Aravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Aravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
80%
Leganés II or Aravaca
73%
Draw or Aravaca
47%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
27%
Aravaca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
77%
Leganés II 2+ goals
43%
Leganés II 3+ goals
18%
Aravaca 1+ goals
55%
Aravaca 2+ goals
19%
Aravaca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
73%
Aravaca (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Aravaca away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Aravaca attack 0.76 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leganés II scores more
53%
level
27%
Aravaca scores more
20%

Leganés II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Leganés II 1–0 Aravaca

Leganés II beat Aravaca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.