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Leevon / PPK vs Riga FC II — 1. Liga 2026

Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
M. Oliynyk 67' (pen)
M. Parkhomenko 90+3'
R. Trifonovs 90'
N. Prudchenko 44', 37'
9/16/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 19RTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Leevon / PPK32%
×Draw22%
Riga FC II45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leevon / PPK
1.55
Riga FC II
1.87

Riga FC II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

creates per match

Leevon / PPK
1.81
Riga FC II
2.14

allows per match

Leevon / PPK
1.59
Riga FC II
1.29

finishing

Leevon / PPK+0.00on par
Riga FC II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leevon / PPK ↓

Riga FC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Leevon / PPK or draw
55%
Leevon / PPK or Riga FC II
78%
Draw or Riga FC II
68%

Winning margin

Leevon / PPK wins by 2+
15%
Riga FC II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Leevon / PPK 1+ goals
79%
Leevon / PPK 2+ goals
46%
Leevon / PPK 3+ goals
20%
Riga FC II 1+ goals
85%
Riga FC II 2+ goals
56%
Riga FC II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Leevon / PPK (draw refunded)
42%
Riga FC II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leevon / PPK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

Riga FC II away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leevon / PPK attack 1.81 + Riga FC II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.55

Riga FC II attack 2.14 + Leevon / PPK defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leevon / PPK scores more
32%
level
22%
Riga FC II scores more
45%

Riga FC II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Riga FC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
N. Prudchenko
44'
N. Prudchenko
45'
M. Semesko
46'
D. Strods← D. Strods
46'
K. Iljins← K. Iljins
46'
K. Nguena← B. Orosco
46'
G. Muscia← A. Poluhovics
57'
G. Kirkils
63'
A. Kirilins← G. Helmanis
63'
A. Jaudzems← R. Korzans
63'
R. Trifonovs← R. Trifonovs
67'
M. OliynykPenalty
67'
M. Parkhomenko← M. Parkhomenko
75'
R. Baumanis
77'
R. Lusis← R. Lusis
78'
R. Korzans
78'
D. Putrans
89'
M. Tatkov← M. Tatkov
90'
R. Trifonovs
90+3'
M. Parkhomenko↳ K. Iljins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Leevon / PPK 1–4 Riga FC II

Riga FC II beat Leevon / PPK 4-1 in 1. Liga on September 16, 2024.

Goals: N. Prudchenko (37', 44'), M. Oliynyk (67' pen), R. Trifonovs (90'), M. Parkhomenko (90+3').

The match was played at RTU stadions in Riga.