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Leevon / PPK vs Rēzekne FA — 1. Liga 2026

Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
6/15/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 9LNK Sporta Parks 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Leevon / PPK59%
×Draw19%
Rēzekne FA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leevon / PPK
2.44
Rēzekne FA
1.43

Leevon / PPK creates 71% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 87 away

creates per match

Leevon / PPK
1.81
Rēzekne FA
1.24

allows per match

Leevon / PPK
1.61
Rēzekne FA
3.06

finishing

Leevon / PPK+0.00on par
Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leevon / PPK ↓

Rēzekne FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Leevon / PPK or draw
78%
Leevon / PPK or Rēzekne FA
81%
Draw or Rēzekne FA
41%

Winning margin

Leevon / PPK wins by 2+
38%
Rēzekne FA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leevon / PPK 1+ goals
91%
Leevon / PPK 2+ goals
70%
Leevon / PPK 3+ goals
43%
Rēzekne FA 1+ goals
76%
Rēzekne FA 2+ goals
42%
Rēzekne FA 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Leevon / PPK (draw refunded)
73%
Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leevon / PPK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Rēzekne FA away — creates 1.24, concedes 3.06 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leevon / PPK attack 1.81 + Rēzekne FA defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.44

Rēzekne FA attack 1.24 + Leevon / PPK defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Leevon / PPK scores more
59%
level
19%
Rēzekne FA scores more
22%

Leevon / PPK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Leevon / PPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leevon / PPK vs Rēzekne FA

Leevon / PPK beat Rēzekne FA 4-1 in 1. Liga on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at LNK Sporta Parks 2 in Riga.