Leek Town Ladies W 0–0 Lincoln City W

Leek Town Ladies W

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lincoln City W

11/10/2019

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundHarrison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leek Town Ladies W62%

×Draw16%

Lincoln City W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leek Town Ladies WExpected goals in this matchLincoln City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.52

2.17

Leek Town Ladies W

3.52

Lincoln City W

2.17

Leek Town Ladies W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

3.67

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Leek Town Ladies W

3.67

Lincoln City W

2.00

allows per match

Leek Town Ladies W

2.33

Lincoln City W

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leek Town Ladies W+0.00on par

Lincoln City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leek Town Ladies W ↓

Lincoln City W →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–42%

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

Leek Town Ladies W or draw

78%

Leek Town Ladies W or Lincoln City W

84%

Draw or Lincoln City W

38%

Winning margin

Leek Town Ladies W wins by 2+

43%

Lincoln City W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leek Town Ladies W 1+ goals

97%

Leek Town Ladies W 2+ goals

86%

Leek Town Ladies W 3+ goals

66%

Lincoln City W 1+ goals

89%

Lincoln City W 2+ goals

64%

Lincoln City W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Leek Town Ladies W (draw refunded)

73%

Lincoln City W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leek Town Ladies W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Lincoln City W away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leek Town Ladies W attack 3.67 + Lincoln City W defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.52

Lincoln City W attack 2.00 + Leek Town Ladies W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Leek Town Ladies W scores more

62%

level

16%

Lincoln City W scores more

22%

Leek Town Ladies W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Leek Town Ladies W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff