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Leeds W vs Stoke City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Leeds W
Leeds W
FT
3 – 1
Stoke City W
Stoke City W
1/8/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Roundi2i Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leeds W59%
×Draw18%
Stoke City W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds W
2.83
Stoke City W
1.78

Leeds W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leeds W
3.00
Stoke City W
1.17

allows per match

Leeds W
2.40
Stoke City W
2.67

finishing

Leeds W+0.00on par
Stoke City W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds W ↓

Stoke City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Leeds W or draw
77%
Leeds W or Stoke City W
82%
Draw or Stoke City W
41%

Winning margin

Leeds W wins by 2+
39%
Stoke City W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leeds W 1+ goals
94%
Leeds W 2+ goals
77%
Leeds W 3+ goals
53%
Stoke City W 1+ goals
83%
Stoke City W 2+ goals
53%
Stoke City W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Leeds W (draw refunded)
72%
Stoke City W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Stoke City W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds W attack 3.00 + Stoke City W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Stoke City W attack 1.17 + Leeds W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Leeds W scores more
59%
level
18%
Stoke City W scores more
23%

Leeds W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Leeds W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Leeds W 3–1 Stoke City W

Leeds W beat Stoke City W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at i2i Stadium in Tadcaster, North Yorkshire.