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Leeds W vs Durham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Leeds W
Leeds W
FT
0 – 6
Durham W
Durham W
12/12/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThrostle Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leeds W41%
×Draw20%
Durham W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds W
2.29
Durham W
2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Leeds W
3.00
Durham W
2.14

allows per match

Leeds W
2.40
Durham W
1.57

finishing

Leeds W+0.00on par
Durham W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds W ↓

Durham W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Leeds W or draw
60%
Leeds W or Durham W
80%
Draw or Durham W
59%

Winning margin

Leeds W wins by 2+
23%
Durham W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Leeds W 1+ goals
90%
Leeds W 2+ goals
66%
Leeds W 3+ goals
40%
Durham W 1+ goals
90%
Durham W 2+ goals
66%
Durham W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Leeds W (draw refunded)
50%
Durham W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Durham W away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds W attack 3.00 + Durham W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Durham W attack 2.14 + Leeds W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leeds W scores more
41%
level
20%
Durham W scores more
40%

Leeds W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leeds W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Leeds W 0–6 Durham W

Durham W beat Leeds W 6-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Throstle Nest in Farsley, West Yorkshire.