Leeds W 1–1 Brighouse Town W: Result & Stats

Leeds W

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brighouse Town W

11/13/2022

FA Women's Cup · 1st Roundi2i Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leeds W22%

×Draw19%

Brighouse Town W60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leeds WExpected goals in this matchBrighouse Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.54

Leeds W

1.50

Brighouse Town W

2.54

Brighouse Town W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

2.67

2.40

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Leeds W

3.00

Brighouse Town W

2.67

allows per match

Leeds W

2.40

Brighouse Town W

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leeds W+0.00on par

Brighouse Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds W ↓

Brighouse Town W →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Leeds W or draw

40%

Leeds W or Brighouse Town W

81%

Draw or Brighouse Town W

78%

Winning margin

Leeds W wins by 2+

10%

Brighouse Town W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Leeds W 1+ goals

78%

Leeds W 2+ goals

44%

Leeds W 3+ goals

19%

Brighouse Town W 1+ goals

92%

Brighouse Town W 2+ goals

72%

Brighouse Town W 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Leeds W (draw refunded)

27%

Brighouse Town W (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leeds W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Brighouse Town W away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leeds W attack 3.00 + Brighouse Town W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Brighouse Town W attack 2.67 + Leeds W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Leeds W scores more

22%

level

19%

Brighouse Town W scores more

60%

Brighouse Town W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Brighouse Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff