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Leeds vs Watford — Championship 2025

Leeds
Leeds
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Watford
Watford
B. Aaronson 7'
L. Ramazani 4'
K. Baah 47'
10/22/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Leeds64%
×Draw22%
Watford13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.78
Watford
0.66

Leeds creates 170% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 55 away

creates per match

Leeds
2.00
Watford
0.98

allows per match

Leeds
0.33
Watford
1.56

finishing

Leeds+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
87%
Leeds or Watford
78%
Draw or Watford
36%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
38%
Watford wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
83%
Leeds 2+ goals
53%
Leeds 3+ goals
26%
Watford 1+ goals
48%
Watford 2+ goals
14%
Watford 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
83%
Watford (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Watford away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 2.00 + Watford defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Watford attack 0.98 + Leeds defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Leeds scores more
64%
level
22%
Watford scores more
13%

Leeds at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
A. TanakaLeedsLeeds · M
7.9

Match Events

4'
L. Ramazani↳ J. Firpo
7'
B. Aaronson
14'
M. Solomon← L. Ramazani
35'
Festy Ebosele
38'
Ao Tanaka
47'
K. Baah
59'
Junior Firpo
62'
R. Porteous← F. Sierralta
72'
D. James← W. Gnonto
72'
Mateo Joseph← J. Piroe
72'
K. Sema← Y. Larouci
72'
R. Andrews← F. Ebosele
87'
M. Doumbia← K. Baah
87'
R. Vata← M. Sissoko
90+6'
S. Byram← M. Solomon

Possession

52%Leeds

Shots

24Leeds

Pass accuracy

52%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsWatford
Overview
52%Possession48%
24Total Shots9
1.36Expected Goals (xG)0.69
10Corners4
7Fouls11
Shots
24Total Shots9
7On Target3
11Off Target3
6Blocked3
18Inside Box5
6Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
445Total Passes405
375Accurate Passes319
84%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
-1.13Goals Prevented-1.13
Discipline
7Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Championship: Leeds 2–1 Watford

Leeds beat Watford 2-1 in Championship on October 22, 2024.

Goals: L. Ramazani (4'), B. Aaronson (7'), K. Baah (47').

Leeds controlled possession (52%) and registered 24 shots to 9.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.