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Leeds vs Watford — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Watford
Watford
Diego Llorente 18'
10/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Leeds44%
×Draw25%
Watford31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.56
Watford
1.25

Leeds creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 114 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.34
Watford
0.96

allows per match

Leeds
1.54
Watford
1.77

finishing

Leeds+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
69%
Leeds or Watford
75%
Draw or Watford
56%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
22%
Watford wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
79%
Leeds 2+ goals
46%
Leeds 3+ goals
21%
Watford 1+ goals
71%
Watford 2+ goals
36%
Watford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
59%
Watford (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.34 + Watford defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Watford attack 0.96 + Leeds defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leeds scores more
44%
level
25%
Watford scores more
31%

Leeds at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Diego LlorenteLeedsLeeds · D
7.7

Match Events

18'
Diego Llorente
45+1'
K. Sema← J. King
59'
Kiko Femenía
59'
João Pedro← O. Tufan
65'
Ismaïla Sarr
68'
C. Kabasele← F. Sierralta
78'
T. Roberts← S. Dallas
90'
Emmanuel Dennis
90+4'
P. Struijk← M. Klich

Possession

67%Leeds

Shots

20Leeds

Pass accuracy

55%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsWatford
Overview
67%Possession33%
20Total Shots5
6Corners3
10Fouls16
Shots
20Total Shots5
4On Target1
10Off Target2
6Blocked2
10Inside Box3
10Outside Box2
Passing
67%Possession33%
497Total Passes242
405Accurate Passes157
81%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Leeds vs Watford

Leeds beat Watford 1-0 in Premier League on October 2, 2021.

Goals: Diego Llorente (18').

Leeds controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.