Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leeds vs Portsmouth — Championship 2018

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
10/1/2011ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leeds57%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.55
Portsmouth
0.71

Leeds creates 118% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 38 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.60
Portsmouth
0.93

allows per match

Leeds
0.49
Portsmouth
1.50

finishing

Leeds+0.28scores more
Portsmouth+0.15scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
83%
Leeds or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
43%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
31%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
79%
Leeds 2+ goals
46%
Leeds 3+ goals
20%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
51%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
16%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
77%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.49 · 8 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.60 + Portsmouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Portsmouth attack 0.93 + Leeds defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leeds scores more
57%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
17%

Leeds at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leeds vs Portsmouth

Leeds beat Portsmouth 1-0 in Championship on October 1, 2011.

The match was played at Elland Road.