Leeds 2–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats | Championship

Leeds

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Plymouth

11/11/2023

Championship · Round 16Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Leeds67%

×Draw21%

Plymouth12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.67

Leeds

1.91

Plymouth

0.67

Leeds creates 185% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 46 away

1.98

creates per match

0.63

0.70

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Leeds

1.98

Plymouth

0.63

allows per match

Leeds

0.70

Plymouth

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leeds+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

88%

Leeds or Plymouth

79%

Draw or Plymouth

33%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

41%

Plymouth wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

85%

Leeds 2+ goals

57%

Leeds 3+ goals

30%

Plymouth 1+ goals

49%

Plymouth 2+ goals

15%

Plymouth 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

84%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 97 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.98 + Plymouth defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.91

Plymouth attack 0.63 + Leeds defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Leeds scores more

67%

level

21%

Plymouth scores more

12%

Leeds at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff