Leeds 5–2 Newcastle: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.27

Leeds

1.39

Newcastle

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.57

creates per match

1.24

1.31

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Leeds

1.57

Newcastle

1.24

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Newcastle

1.20

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

66%

Leeds or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

60%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

19%

Newcastle wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

75%

Leeds 2+ goals

40%

Leeds 3+ goals

16%

Newcastle 1+ goals

72%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

54%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Newcastle attack 1.24 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leeds scores more

40%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

34%

Leeds at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Harrison

Leeds · M

8.3

Match Events

26'

J. Hendrick↳ C. Wilson

35'

37'

48'

50'

61'

62'

E. Krafth← J. Hendrick

65'

C. Clark↳ R. Fraser

68'

Raphinha

74'

D. Gayle← Joelinton

75'

M. Almirón← R. Fraser

77'

S. Dallas↳ M. Klich

82'

Pablo Hernández← Rodrigo

84'

T. Roberts← P. Bamford

85'

E. Alioski↳ Pablo Hernández

88'

J. Harrison↳ Pablo Hernández

89'

J. Shackleton← M. Klich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsNewcastle

Overview

68%Possession32%

25Total Shots10

7Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

25Total Shots10

10On Target4

8Off Target5

7Blocked1

17Inside Box8

8Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

533Total Passes246

444Accurate Passes162

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Leeds vs Newcastle

Leeds beat Newcastle 5-2 in Premier League on December 16, 2020.

Goals: J. Hendrick (26'), P. Bamford (35'), Rodrigo (61'), C. Clark (65'), S. Dallas (77'), E. Alioski (85'), J. Harrison (88').

Leeds controlled possession (68%) and registered 25 shots to 10.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.

Leeds vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leeds vs Newcastle