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Leeds vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Leeds
Leeds
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
12/2/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leeds47%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.44
Middlesbrough
0.99

Leeds creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.60
Middlesbrough
1.49

allows per match

Leeds
0.49
Middlesbrough
1.28

finishing

Leeds+0.28scores more
Middlesbrough-0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
74%
Leeds or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
53%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
23%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
76%
Leeds 2+ goals
42%
Leeds 3+ goals
18%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
63%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
26%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
65%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.49 · 8 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.28 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.60 + Middlesbrough defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Middlesbrough attack 1.49 + Leeds defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leeds scores more
47%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
26%

Leeds at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leeds vs Middlesbrough

Leeds beat Middlesbrough 3-2 in Championship on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.