Leeds 1–4 Leicester: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Leicester

S. Dallas 48'

Y. Tielemans 90+1' (pen), 21'

J. Vardy 76'

H. Barnes 3'

11/2/2020

Premier League · Round 7Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leeds46%

×Draw23%

Leicester31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.48

Leeds

1.84

Leicester

1.48

Leeds creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

1.65

1.31

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Leeds

1.57

Leicester

1.65

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Leicester

2.11

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less

Leicester-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

69%

Leeds or Leicester

77%

Draw or Leicester

54%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

25%

Leicester wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

84%

Leeds 2+ goals

55%

Leeds 3+ goals

28%

Leicester 1+ goals

77%

Leicester 2+ goals

43%

Leicester 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

60%

Leicester (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Leicester defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.84

Leicester attack 1.65 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leeds scores more

46%

level

23%

Leicester scores more

31%

Leeds at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Y. Tielemans

Leicester · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

H. Barnes↳ J. Vardy

21'

Y. Tielemans

46'

I. Poveda-Ocampo← J. Shackleton

48'

S. Dallas↳ J. Harrison

50'

Stuart Dallas

63'

J. Maddison← D. Praet

67'

T. Roberts← Pablo Hernández

71'

C. Ünder← H. Barnes

76'

J. Vardy↳ C. Ünder

81'

E. Alioski← S. Dallas

84'

Luke Thomas

85'

W. Morgan← J. Vardy

89'

James MaddisonGoal cancelled

90+1'

Y. TielemansPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsLeicester

Overview

67%Possession33%

11Total Shots10

10Corners3

9Fouls5

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target8

5Off Target1

2Blocked1

6Inside Box9

5Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

639Total Passes302

541Accurate Passes211

85%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Leeds vs Leicester

Leicester beat Leeds 4-1 in Premier League on November 2, 2020.

Goals: H. Barnes (3'), Y. Tielemans (21', 90+1' pen), S. Dallas (48'), J. Vardy (76').

Leeds controlled possession (67%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.

Leeds vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leeds vs Leicester