Leeds 1–2 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

A. White 60'

J. Vaughan 86'

N. Danns 54'

3/16/2013

Championship · Round 38Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Leeds61%

×Draw23%

Huddersfield16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.74

Leeds

1.73

Huddersfield

0.74

Leeds creates 134% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 12 away

1.97

creates per match

0.96

0.53

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Leeds

1.97

Huddersfield

0.96

allows per match

Leeds

0.53

Huddersfield

1.49

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Leeds+0.37scores more

Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

84%

Leeds or Huddersfield

77%

Draw or Huddersfield

39%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

35%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

82%

Leeds 2+ goals

52%

Leeds 3+ goals

25%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

52%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

17%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

80%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.53 · 35 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.97 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.73

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Leeds defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Leeds scores more

61%

level

23%

Huddersfield scores more

16%

Leeds at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

58'

58'

60'

76'

76'

J. Beckford← O. Norwood

86'

J. Vaughan

90+1'

C. Woods← O. Gobern

Leeds

Huddersfield

1

3

5

6

32

20

⚽

Danns

10

▼

Gobern

8

Clayton

11

▼

Ward

4

▼

Norwood

18

⚽

1

15

2

4

18

11

7

▼

8

25

21

22

▼

Habibou

58'▲A. White←▼P. Green

58'▲R. Hall←▼M. Habibou

Leeds substitutes

14White30Hall5Pearce12Ashdown17Brown19Norris32Dawson

76'▲S. Scannell←▼D. Ward

76'▲J. Beckford←▼O. Norwood

90+1'▲C. Woods←▼O. Gobern

Huddersfield substitutes

7Scannell21Beckford2Woods9Novak13Bennett15Wallace17Robinson